Atletico Madrid and RB Leipzig face off in an exciting Champions League clash at the Metropolitano Stadium.
Atletico Madrid have had a strong beginning to their La Liga season, remaining undefeated in their initial five games and demonstrating solid underlying statistics. It has been a bustling summer for Diego Simeone’s team, as they have added several prominent new players in an effort to compete with Real Madrid and Barcelona. After reaching the Champions League quarterfinals last year, they are anticipating a deeper run this season with their enhanced roster.
RB Leipzig have experienced a mixed start to their Bundesliga campaign. They managed a stunning victory over Leverkusen but found it challenging to secure a win against Bochum in their opener and then settled for a draw with Union Berlin over the weekend. Marco Rose’s team has performed well in the Champions League in previous years, frequently reaching the knockout stages, and they will be a formidable underdog in this match.
Here’s the forecast for the Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig match below.
Atletico Madrid Preview
Atletico Madrid have developed over the years and are no longer the 4-4-2 direct counterattacking squad you once recognized. Simeone now has his team frequently building from the back, but they employ various formations to bewilder their opponents. The primary strategy is to move the ball into wide positions to create a 2 v 1 situation against the opposing fullback, allowing Madrid to generate opportunities through crosses.
When Atletico get the ball to the final third they are really good at creating chances from the half space and making dummy runs to open up space for the forwards to receive the ball in the box. The Atletico attack is no doubt going to improve this season with the addition of Julian Alvarez from Manchester City and Alexander Sørloth, who is coming off a 23-goal season with Villarreal.
The cornerstone of the Atletico Madrid team though is how solid they are defensively. Traditionally, Simeone has favored a 4-4-2, but in recent years he has transitioned to more of a 5-3-2 to help prevent teams from overloading the last line of defense. Through their first five matches they have yet to concede over one expected goals, but this will be the best offensive and transition team they have seen so far this season.
RB Leipzig Preview
RB Leipzig haven’t been their usual selves in the beginning of the season, but they are the type of team that can give Atletico Madrid problems. They have loads of talent in their attack, but most importantly those attackers are incredibly dangerous in transition.
Leipzig are set up really well to play without the ball. A staple under Marco Rose is his 4-2-2-2 system where he wants his team to attack through the middle of the pitch. The front two of Sesko and Openda combined for 38 goals in the Bundesliga last season, while Simons playing in the half space compiled 11 assists.
The 4-2-2-2 formation also allows Leipzig to maintain a very narrow shape, so teams aren’t able to control or hurt them through the middle of the pitch. In a very high-event league, RB Leipzig only conceded 1.07 npxG per 90 minutes. They also played Real Madrid incredibly tough in the round of 16 last year. Over the two legs, they only allowed the eventual champions to score twice and create 2.2 expected goals over the two legs and actually won the expected goals battle in the second leg in Madrid.
Atletico Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Prediction
Atletico Madrid have posted impressive defensive stats in La Liga so far, but to be fair, it’s been against significantly weaker opposition than what they’ll face on Thursday. While Atletico Madrid are solid when defending in a passive block, there are some concerns about how they’ll cope with RB Leipzig’s rapid transition attacks.
Atletico Madrid played Dortmund in the quarterfinals last year and conceded five goals over the two legs. La Liga and the Bundesliga are weighted as very similar leagues from a UEFA coefficient standpoint. RB Leipzig had better underlying numbers in the Bundesliga than Atletico did in La Liga. So, in my opinion the home side is getting overvalued because they are in better form, not because they are a better team.
I only have Atletico Madrid projected at +125, so I like the value on the RB Leipzig +0.5 at +107.